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Sources— Value and Exchange

Sources & references (fact-checked July 2026)

Output-market evidence

UK Illustrators Draw the Line: AOI Publishes AI Survey Results (6,844 respondents; 32.4% have lost work; avg. £9,262 per affected artist; 92.65% cannot opt out)

Association of Illustrators / World Illustration Awards · 2025 — self-published, no methodology or reference period for the loss figure

A third of translators report losing work to generative AI systems, SoA survey reveals (36% of translators lost work; 43% report income down)

The Bookseller (Society of Authors survey, n=787, fielded Jan 2024) · Apr 2024

Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of AI (16% relative employment decline, ages 22–25, most AI-exposed occupations)

Stanford Digital Economy Lab (Brynjolfsson, Chandar & Chen) · Nov 13, 2025 — supersedes the Aug 2025 draft, which said 13%

Canaries, Interest Rates, and Timing (authors’ follow-up: decline statistically clean only after 2024)

Stanford Digital Economy Lab · Feb 9, 2026

Generative AI in Equilibrium: Evidence from a Creative Goods Marketplace (images +78%, producing firms +88%, sales +39%, non-AI artist participation −23%)

Stanford GSB (Goldberg & Lam) · May 2025

Generative AI Is Upending Freelance Work — Even Top Performers Aren’t Safe (writing earnings −5.2%, image earnings −9.4%; top earners hit hardest)

INFORMS, on Hui, Reshef & Zhou, Organization Science · Nov 2024

State of Voiceover 2025 (7% have had a synthetic version of their voice made without permission)

National Association of Voice Actors, n=1,305 · Feb 2025

Input-market deals

Reddit Is Winning the AI Game (Google ~$60M/yr; OpenAI ~$70M/yr)

Columbia Journalism Review (Klaudia Jaźwińska) · Oct 2, 2025 — both figures are reported, never officially disclosed

OpenAI may pay Reddit $70M for licensing deal (an analyst’s inference, not a disclosed figure)

Search Engine Land (Barry Schwartz) · Feb 13, 2025 — CJR’s source for the $70M; not independent corroboration

AP strikes news-sharing and tech deal with OpenAI (no value disclosed)

Axios (Sara Fischer) · Jul 13, 2023

News Corp Inks OpenAI Licensing Deal Potentially Worth More Than $250 Million (~$50M/yr over five years; WSJ-sourced, company-unconfirmed)

Variety (Todd Spangler) · May 22, 2024

Getty Images Announces Display Partnership with OpenAI (a display licence — training use not granted)

Engadget · Jun 2026

Generative AI by Getty Images (trained on licensed content “including” Getty’s own library; contributors compensated; indemnification)

Getty Images — vendor page · accessed 2026

The Walt Disney Company and OpenAI Reach Landmark Agreement (three years, 200+ characters, $1bn equity investment)

The Walt Disney Company · Dec 11, 2025

Sora Shut Down — Disney’s $1B OpenAI Investment Not Moving Forward

Deadline · Mar 24, 2026

Warner Music settles copyright lawsuit with Udio, signs deal for AI music platform (terms undisclosed)

TechCrunch (Aisha Malik) · Nov 19, 2025

Warner Music Group strikes ‘landmark’ deal with Suno; settles copyright lawsuit (terms undisclosed)

Music Business Worldwide (Murray Stassen) · Nov 25, 2025

Sony Music files new lawsuit against Udio, asserting 30,117 recordings a judge barred it from adding to its original case

Music Business Worldwide · Jul 2026 — Sony has settled with neither Suno nor Udio

Settlements and litigation

Anthropic settles with authors in first-of-its-kind AI copyright lawsuit ($1.5bn; ~$3,000/work; covers books downloaded from LibGen and PiLiMi — training itself was held fair use)

NPR (Chloe Veltman) · Sep 5, 2025

Bartz v. Anthropic — order granting final approval (482,460 works; fees cut from $187.5M sought to $101.56M; pirated files to be destroyed)

N.D. Cal., Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín · Jul 20, 2026

The Bartz v. Anthropic Settlement: Understanding America’s Largest Copyright Settlement (settlement architecture; written pre-approval)

Kluwer Copyright Blog (Dave Hansen) · Nov 10, 2025 — describes the mechanics, not the outcome

Music Publishers File New Piracy Suit Against Anthropic Alleging Mass Torrenting (21,231 compositions; names Dario Amodei and Benjamin Mann personally)

IPWatchdog · Jan 29, 2026

Concord Music Group, Inc. v. Anthropic PBC (March 2025 preliminary-injunction denial and partial motion-to-dismiss grant; notes the earlier guardrails stipulation)

Loeb & Loeb LLP (Hussain & Gordils) · Apr 4, 2025 — case is live; does not cover the 2026 filings

Musicians’ union sues Universal and Warner over AI settlements (AFM alleges session players uncompensated)

The Hollywood Reporter · Jun 5, 2026

Getty Images v. Stability AI: English High Court rejects secondary copyright claim (Getty abandoned its training claim mid-trial; the court never reached training-stage infringement)

Latham & Watkins, on [2025] EWHC 2863 (Ch) · Nov 4, 2025

Policy and collective-licensing architecture

National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence — Legislative Recommendations (Administration’s view: training does not violate copyright; collective licensing raised only as something Congress “should consider,” with antitrust relief)

The White House · Mar 2026 — not to be confused with the Dec 2025 executive order of a similar name

TRAIN Act (S.2455) — bill status

GovInfo, 119th Congress · introduced Jul 24, 2025 — referred to Senate Judiciary; no hearing, no markup

COPIED Act (S.1396) — bill status

GovInfo, 119th Congress · introduced Apr 9, 2025 — referred to Senate Commerce; no markup

Cantwell, Blackburn, Heinrich Reintroduce the COPIED Act

U.S. Senate Commerce Committee · Apr 2025

Music publishers strike AI licensing deals with Udio and KLAY as NMPA reveals landmark industry-wide pacts (opt-in for members; songs valued on par with recordings)

Music Business Worldwide · Jun 10, 2026

PLS offers new collective AI licensing opportunity to publishers (covers training, fine-tuning and RAG; 250+ UK publishers opted in)

Publishers Licensing Services, with CLA and ALCS · Mar 2026

RIAA leads music community in AI filing (licences should be “negotiated without regulation and in the free market”)

RIAA, filing to OSTP · Mar 2025

Authors Guild Partners with Created by Humans (per-work opt-in marketplace, non-exclusive, seven-day window to decline each deal — not collective licensing)

The Authors Guild · Oct 2024 — platform launched Jan 2025; no enrolment figure published

Music Licensing: The ASCAP and BMI Consent Decrees (1941 decree; licence on demand, non-exclusive rights, and a federal rate court)

Congressional Research Service, IF11463 · accessed 2026

Compulsory License for Making and Distributing Phonorecords, Circular 73A

U.S. Copyright Office · accessed 2026 — the Music Modernization Act converted §115 to a blanket licence under the Mechanical Licensing Collective, operative Jan 1, 2021

Digital Performance Royalties (statutory split: 45% featured artists, 5% non-featured performers, 50% recording owner)

SoundExchange · accessed 2026

Report on Copyright and Artificial Intelligence (“a broad copyright exception with opt-out is no longer the government’s preferred way forward”; no intervention in the licensing market)

UK Government, under the Data (Use and Access) Act 2025 · Mar 18, 2026

Japan’s Text and Data Mining Copyright Exception for AI Training (Article 30-4)

Hugh Stephens Blog · Mar 2024 — commentary; pair with the primary below

General Understanding on AI and Copyright in Japan (the Art. 30-4 proviso; excludes fine-tuning to imitate a specific creator, RAG, and databases sold for data analysis)

Agency for Cultural Affairs · Mar 2024

Consultation on Copyright in the Age of Generative AI: What We Heard

Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada · Jan 30, 2025 — summarises a consultation that closed Jan 2024; no reform proposed, no bill since

Directive (EU) 2019/790, Articles 3 and 4 (text-and-data-mining exception; rights reservation “in an appropriate manner”)

EUR-Lex · 2019

Robert Kneschke v. LAION (a plain-English “no scraping” clause held not machine-readable enough to reserve rights)

DLA Piper, on OLG Hamburg 5 U 104/24 · Dec 10, 2025

AI Watch: Global regulatory tracker — China

White & Case LLP · Sep 22, 2025 — covers deployment, registration and labelling; silent on licensing or royalties

Stream-fraud economy and institutional finances

AI Music Tops 50% of Daily Uploads on Deezer (~90,000 AI tracks/day; up to 85% of streams on those tracks fraudulent; AI is 1–3% of total streams)

Deezer Newsroom · Jul 21, 2026

Deezer and Ipsos study: AI fools 97% of listeners (97% failed a three-track blind test — two AI songs, one human)

Deezer Newsroom, n=9,000 across eight countries · Nov 12, 2025 — upload and fraud figures in this post are superseded

Spotify Strengthens AI Protections for Artists, Songwriters, and Producers (75 million “spammy tracks” removed over twelve months — Spotify’s word, not “AI-generated”)

Spotify Newsroom · Sep 25, 2025

AI Slop Report: The Global Rise of Low-Quality AI Videos (278 channels; ~$117M estimated annual ad revenue, from Social Blade midpoints)

Kapwing — a video-editing company, not YouTube · Nov 28, 2025 — the global aggregates are not published in the report itself

Music Community Introduces New Labeling Program to Distinguish Generative AI in Sound Recordings (voluntary and self-reported; no platform has adopted it)

RIAA, IFPI, Recording Academy, SAG-AFTRA, A2IM, WIN, IMPALA, Human Artistry Campaign · Jul 10, 2026

Universal Music Group reports Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results (revenue €12,507M, +5.7% reported / +8.7% constant currency; Grainge: “another standout year”)

PR Newswire (UMG) · Mar 5, 2026

UMG Posts $14.4B in Revenue for 2025 (a dollar conversion of the €12.5bn reported figure)

The Hollywood Reporter (Ethan Millman) · Mar 5, 2026

Detection, disclosure and the provenance premium

AI Performer Bias: Listeners Like Music Less When They Think it was Performed by an AI (identical audio; 79% reported hearing differences that did not exist)

Ansani et al., Empirical Studies of the Arts · 2025

When Music is Made by AI: Effects on Preferences and Willingness to Pay (listeners couldn’t distinguish, slightly preferred AI blind — and cut willingness to pay on disclosure)

Friedrichsen, Schwarz & Clement, CESifo Working Paper 12405 · 2026 — working paper, not peer-reviewed

You taste what you see: Do organic labels bias taste perceptions? (identical foods; willingness to pay up to 23.4% higher for the “organic” label)

Lee, Shimizu, Kniffin & Wansink, Food Quality and Preference · 2013

U.S. Organic Marketplace Achieved Significant Growth in 2025 (organic food $70.1bn — 6.1% of the total US food market)

Organic Trade Association · Mar 4, 2026

Live Nation Entertainment full year and fourth quarter 2025 results (record $25.2bn revenue, +9%; 159 million fans across 55,000 shows)

Live Nation Newsroom · Feb 19, 2026

Bandcamp Fridays hit $154m in payouts since 2020, with $19m paid in 2025 alone

Music Business Worldwide · Dec 22, 2025